The Economists' Perspective

 

2014

 

This is going to be a dry entry. Basically, we are talking money and law. Please feel free to stop now if you are not interested… I'm not going to be talking about World War III and weapons of mass destruction here...

I'm not sure how we can make something which is so intrinsically interesting, so boring, but somehow we manage it. For those who still remain, thank you. As far as I could see, I was the only one writing about the economic and social impact of a modern-day revival. I was also in the minority among revivalists in being a liberal Christian. Think about it – if there was to be a modern revival, there would be an impact on society, a knock-on effect on laws (even if the new Christians were simply petitioning and lobbying). There would also be an influence on the economy because the revival would probably be coming from a grass-roots level. The more people who became Christians, the more people would support charities. The fewer people would be involved in things like drugs. And what would be the influence on the alcohol and nicotine trade? Historically, people drink less during a revival. Christians still drink, but there is a knock-on effect on these trades.

It's a minefield. People feared what should happen, if they ever thought about it. They assumed it would be a little like the US where abortion was eventually discouraged. Would the pro-lifers here also gain support? Probably. But what about the pro-choice Christians? I will write about the LGBT+ community later on this blog.

In October 2014 I went to see Robert Peston speak on economics at the Cheltenham Literature festival. I found the lecture boring, full of significant, yet dry graphs showing how precarious the economy was after the collapse of 2008. Strangely, the only thing that really struck me were the words of the man who introduced Robert Peston. The compere said: “It’s Sunday morning and the local churches want to know where everyone is.” The hall was full of around 500 people. There were probably a lot more people at churches but there were also a lot of people shopping or simply in their homes. Why did people seem to be everywhere but in churches (or reading my blog)?

And that was the problem among economists. There was speculation of all kinds of financial situations. Recessions. Boom and bust. Various countries economies growing. The cost-of-living crisis.

But no-one really took account of the black swan theory. A black swan among economists is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation. It does not come up on financial forecasts for a company or a country, because no-one expects to see it. Just like a black swan. But black swans exist, though they are rare. In hindsight, people often say they were obvious all the time.

In this case, the black swan was a Christian revival. People simply didn’t expect it.

 

The economy is complex and influenced by all kinds of factors, property, unemployment, tax, etc, etc, etc. I’m not financially illiterate but I was bored senseless by most of it. Presumably a revival would be good for the economy too as God blessed the nation? You would think so. But in the cost-of-living crisis which began proper in 2022, hot on the heals of a pandemic, almost everybody was having to cut back on luxuries. And once again, it was the poor who lost out the most. How were they supposed to weather the storm? Revival is good news for the poor, to put it simply, because people help each other more during one and have more concern for them. It’s not necessarily that people work harder and that there is a knock-on effect on the economy. Some people can’t do that. It is because there is more compassion within society and people help each other out. There is much historical evidence for this. And as a result, though shares may not rise and the country may still be in debt, individuals get help with their personal debts and their personal affairs. Sometimes the church helps, through organisations such as Christians Against Poverty. Or food banks. And then the emergency measures become measures to tackle the root causes of the problems – some of which stem from a lack of meaning among the general population. When meaning is found, even if that meaning is simply the compensation of eternal life and a better life this side of eternity, people start to feel more motivated in whatever they choose to do?

As I say, a dry post. It’s only money.